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Mythical Firing of the Sam Altman? What Went Wrong?

As the dust settles, Friday, 17th November, will become a watershed moment in the burgeoning AI industry. Two of the principal architects and public faces of Open AI – Sam Altman and his buddying face Greg Brockman– lost the confidence of their board. When Altman joined OpenAI in 2019, it was a dream project aiming to change human civilisation forever. So, despite being so successful, what went wrong?

Similar Tragedies in Corporate American History

In 1983, Jobs famously asked Sculley, “Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water, or do you want a chance to change the world?” when he hired him as Apple’s CEO from PepsiCo. However, the differences between Jobs and Sculley grew as Apple fought to stay afloat and compete in the quickly changing personal computer market.

The direction of Apple’s product strategy was one of the main points of dispute. With his expertise in marketing, Sculley concentrated on more traditional commercial techniques, whereas Jobs was renowned for his innovative ideas and insistence on developing ground-breaking goods. Internal tensions and disagreements over handling the organisation’s issues resulted from this clash of visions.

Looking at Job’s removal, one may argue that he was fired to save Apple from his autocratic management style and due to his differences with the then CEO, John Sculley. However, Apple was facing financial challenges, and there were disagreements about the direction of Apple and its product strategy. On the other side, Altman’s OPEN AI is the talk of the town; the world is watching it with surprise and awe, and politicians are trying to comprehend its implications.

Sam Altman and Open AI Board

We argue that Altman’s dismissal is reminiscent of Steve Jobs’s 1985 firing from Apple. Although we have no insider information, we speculate it’s hard for alpha personalities such as Altman to co-exist with cold, calculating, and risk-averse minds. For board members and investors, pay-back periods, cost-benefit estimates and creative accounting are more important than the dream projects.

Reports note that Sam needed to be more candid in his communications with the board, which led to losing the board’s confidence. Nevertheless, we must consider the potential personal rivalries in the boardroom and a complete communication breakdown between Altman, Brockman, and the board.

Improving the relations between Tech Innovators, Industry, and Stakeholders

Like any other industry, the tech and AI sector is always in perpetual flux, which means everything and everyone has to be agile. Such forced agility requires a constant compromise between giant egos, cold calculations, and societal intransigence. The tech sector is a pivot of dynamic and diversified contemporary growth, with a wide spectrum of businesses with various cultures and practices. However, to maximise its impact, it must improve its workplace culture, diversity and inclusion and accept the realities. 

Challenges of the Tech Industry

Below, we identify the challenges to realising the benefits of the tech industry and propose solutions for these challenges.

Workplace Culture:

1. Stress and Burnout: Due to the fast-paced nature of the tech sector, employees may experience significant levels of stress and burnout.

2. Intense Competition: A culture where achievements are valued more highly than well-being may be fostered by a competitive atmosphere, which could result in ruthless competition.

Solutions:

A. Stress Work-Life Balance: Organizations can support a good work-life balance by encouraging appropriate work schedules and discouraging long hours.

B. Create Supportive Environments: Stress can be decreased, and a pleasant environment can be fostered by establishing a work culture that values cooperation, communication, and mutual support.

Considerations for Ethics:

1. Privacy Concerns: When tech corporations gather and utilize personal data, privacy concerns may arise.

2. Ethical Use of AI: If AI systems are developed and implemented without sufficient ethical thought, unfavourable outcomes may result.

Solutions:

A. Transparent Policies: To ensure customers know how their data is handled, companies can set up transparent policies surrounding data usage and AI deployment.

B. Ethics Training: Providing ethics instruction to staff members working on AI development can aid in bringing up possible ethical issues.

Effect on Society:

1. Job displacement: Certain professions may lose their jobs because of automation brought about by AI and technology.

2. Algorithmic Bias: If AI systems are not properly built and evaluated, they may reinforce and even magnify societal biases.

Solutions:

A. Investing in Reskilling: Businesses might fund initiatives that assist staff members in gaining new skills to adjust/pivot to changing job demands.

B. Ethical AI Development: Negative societal effects can be minimized by giving ethical issues, such as reducing bias and maintaining openness, the foremost priority in AI development.

Cooperation and Control:

1. Lack of Collaboration: Innovation and advancement can be impeded by company rivalry and a lack of cooperation.

2. Inadequate Regulation: When regulations are insufficient, it can lead to unethical behaviour or improper use of technology.

Solutions:

A. Industry Collaboration: Promoting industry collaboration among businesses can result in group initiatives to solve shared problems and promote innovation.

B. Regulatory Frameworks: Encouraging the creation of thorough and moral regulatory frameworks can offer standards for ethical behaviour.

Authors’ Recipe for Change

Way Forward

In conclusion, even though the IT and AI sectors have greatly benefited society, resolving perceived toxicity requires a diversified strategy. However, to realise their full potential, we must build an environment that promotes innovation and societal well-being. Collaboration between industry executives, policymakers, and employees is imperative to develop a tech landscape that is not just technologically advanced but also ethical, inclusive, and mindful of its influence on society.

As for Altman and Brockman (AB), they will emerge wiser and stronger from the crisis. AB 2.0 may prove to be a blessing in disguise, as there will be further competition in the AI industry, which will ultimately benefit humanity at large.

Carl Friedrich Gauss: The Prince of the Mathematics World

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Mathematics Prince

It is a great honour to write about arguably the greatest Mathematician of all time, known today as the Prince of Mathematics, Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855). He is also known for Gauss’ law in Physics, But in the world of mathematics, Gauss is often referred to as the “Prince of the Mathematics.” History considers him more a mathematician than a physicist, and for me, Gauss has the most beautiful description of mathematics which I have been fortunate to write down for many of my students at the LSE, Oxford and UCL, and it is the passage of text that I have engraved in my mind:

Arithmetic (number theory) is the queen of Mathematics, and Mathematics is the Queen of the Sciences; she often condescends to render service to astronomy and other natural sciences but under all circumstances, the first place is her due.J.C.F Gauss.

Mathematics and Natural Sciences

Notice that Gauss here mentions astronomy and other natural sciences and not the social sciences since it was these two disciplines that influenced the development of Mathematics, in particular astronomy due to man’s need for the correct measurement of time, and seasons (weather prediction for harvesting) and not the social sciences including finance and economics.
 
Gauss had in his possession the theory of matrices (recall Gaussian elimination), and iterative techniques such as the Gauss-Jacobi, and Gauss-Seidel methods, He developed quadrature techniques, the so-called Cauchy-Riemann equations of complex variable theory were known to him as were quaternions attributed to W.R.Hamilton (1805-1865). We also have Gauss’ creation of differential geometry, and then we have Gauss’ development of the normal distribution the pivotal probability distribution found in any naturally occurring phenomenon, furthermore, we have his development of the method of ordinary least squares (OLS) and multiple ordinary least squares (MOLS) that I am fortunate to discuss on my modules at UCL. As is no doubt known Gauss used the method of OLS to predict the position of planets from astronomical data and not for econometrically modelling house prices in world cities as is so often done by applied Economists.

The Fascination of Primes

Gauss’ first Mathematical love was for the primes, the atoms of the integers proven so beautifully to be infinite in number by a reduction ad absurdum proof of Euclid (300BC). Around the time of Gauss, Mathematicians were trying to find generating functions that could produce primes indefinitely (without success see for example, M. Mersenne (1588-1648)), but what Gauss decided to do was to give an expression on how many primes there were less than an integer n, now known as the Prime number theorem. This is also now intricately related to the work of one of his greatest students Bernhard Riemann (1826-1866), who in his own right was also a “Giant” of Mathematics and in fact, it was Riemannian geometry that Einstein used to frame his General theory of Relativity, but that post is for another day.
 
Once again, I have overstepped my word limit, so I will have to stop here until next time: “old friends”.

Einstein’s Intellectual Odyssey: Unraveling the Mind of a Genius

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Introduction:

In November 1915, Albert Einstein (1879-1955) published his field equations that would topple the Newtonian World View, usher in a new understanding of force, and explain that the idea of gravitational “force” at a distance should be abandoned. Newton coined the term “force,” but couldn’t explain its origin. 

Hypothesis non Fingo:

“Hypothesis non fingo” (I contrive no hypotheses), meaning that he knew how to calculate the magnitude of the gravitational “force numerically”, but he could not account for it. Still, he did do away with Atlas and other strange explanations of what keeps the heavens stable and intact. 

Albert’s Novel:

Albert’s novel approach to explaining gravity as an acceleration was, as he (Albert) put it, “his happiest” thought. It was said that Einstein commented on it thus:  

” The young Albert was sitting at his desk in the patent office at Bern when this thought occurred to him: If a person fell freely from the roof of his house, he would not feel his weight?” I assume he did not envision the image of the sprawled-out person on the floor after impact.

Einstein Prizes:

My “good” friend John Wheeler (191-2008), winner of Wolf, Bohr and Einstein prizes, explained these equations most succinctly: 

“Matter tells spacetime how to curve, and curved spacetime tells matter how to move”. 

Albert in Mathematics:

Returning to Einstein, scholars are fond of relaying the following story that Albert once discussed his Mathematical problems with arguably the greatest Mathematician of the 20th century, namely David Hilbert (1862-1943), whose workplace in Gottingen I visited in 2009 and who is famous for his 23 problems, consequently after this interaction, David almost beat Einstein to the Relativity summit. Today, it is Albert, not David, who is remembered for the development of the General Theory of Relativity. The story’s moral is that you need to discuss your Mathematical issues with a Mathematician. 

Marcel Grossman:

One should also mention the Swiss Mathematician and friend of Albert Einstein, Marcel Grossman (1878-1936) in this little story who was Albert’s colleague at the ETH in Zurich and who was the individual responsible for explaining the subtleties and niceties of tensors to him and set him on the road to climbing Mount Relativity and reaching its peak.

Quantum Mechanics and the Einstein-Bohr Debate:

Despite his enormous contributions to physics, Einstein disagreed with the then-emerging theory of quantum mechanics, especially concerning its probabilistic aspects. The well-known Einstein-Bohr discussions between Einstein and Niels Bohr highlighted Einstein’s doubts about the basic principles of quantum theory, which he memorably stated in his statement that “God does not play dice with the universe.” Despite his misgivings, quantum mechanics evolved into a crucial aspect of physics, advancing technology and our understanding of the tiny universe.

Conclusion:

Einstein’s academic path served as a tribute to the capacity of a curious mind free from social constraints. Einstein revolutionized science with his light, space, time, and gravity theories. His intellectual odyssey inspires Future generations to set out on their odysseys of knowledge, creativity, and a more profound comprehension of the universe.

Unveiling the Evolution: Green Finance and Sustainable Investing

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Introduction:

The world of finance has seen a paradigm shift in favour of sustainable and ethical investment practices in recent years. A branch of sustainable finance known as “green finance” has gained popularity as a means of advancing environmental sustainability and reaping financial rewards. This essay delves into green finance and its essential constituent, sustainable investing, elucidating its importance, guiding principles, and potential revolutionary environmental effects.

Understanding Green Finance:

Green finance refers to financial instruments and activities that provide support for projects and initiatives that have a positive impact on the environment. These include energy-efficiency programmes, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy projects, and other green ventures. Green finance’s main objective is to direct funds towards initiatives that aid in the shift to a low-carbon, sustainable economy.

Key Components of Green Finance:

1. Green Bonds:

These are debt instruments designed with the express purpose of financing green projects. Green bonds finance eco-friendly projects such as energy-efficient construction, sustainable water management, and renewable energy installations.

2. Green Loans:

Green loans are akin to bonds, exclusively allocated for environmentally sustainable initiatives. Financial institutions may provide these loans to governments or companies financing environmental projects.

3. Sustainable Investment Funds: 

As a result of corporations exhibiting excellent environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, investors are increasingly gravitating towards sustainable investment funds. These funds seek to match the financial aspirations of investors with the ideals of sustainable development.

Sustainable Investing: 

When making investment decisions, sustainable investing considers traditional financial indicators in addition to environmental, social, and governance considerations. Investors realise that including ESG criteria can improve risk management, encourage long-term value creation, and positively impact the environment and society.

Sustainable Investing Principles:

Environmental Impact: 

Investors evaluate how their investments will affect the environment and prefer businesses dedicated to minimizing their environmental impact and advancing sustainable practices.

Social responsibility: 

A company’s effects on the community, labour practises, diversity and inclusion programmes, and other aspects are considered.

Governance: 

Transparency, moral leadership, and accountability are the main points of emphasis for investors as they assess a company’s governance framework.

The Rise of Green Bonds:

The green bond is a prominent tool in the field of green finance. These fixed-income securities were developed specifically to finance environmentally friendly projects. Green bonds are issued by corporations, governments, and local governments to finance projects, including sustainable water management, pollution control, and clean energy infrastructure. There is a growing appetite for investments that address climate change and environmental degradation, as seen by the rise in the popularity of green bonds.

ESG Integration in Investment Strategies:

ESG considerations must be incorporated into conventional investment analysis to practise sustainable investing. Investors are starting to see that businesses with high ESG performance are frequently better able to control risks and seize opportunities in a world that is changing quickly. To encourage ethical corporate conduct and a more sustainable global economy, asset managers are progressively integrating ESG factors into their investing strategies.

Opportunities and Difficulties:

Although sustainable investing and green finance have gained popularity, problems still exist. Concerns for investors include:

  • The absence of standardized ESG indicators.
  • The need for more transparent laws.
  • Greenwashing—the practice of making false statements about the environmental benefits of investments.

But these difficulties also offer chances for creativity, teamwork, and the creation of strong frameworks to direct sustainable financial practices.

Financial Institutions’ Role:

Banks and financial organizations are crucial in driving the shift towards sustainable finance. These institutions may play a major role in advancing the global sustainability agenda by implementing responsible lending practices, creating green financial products, and incorporating ESG considerations into their day-to-day operations.

Conclusion:

Building a more robust and ecologically friendly global economy requires a step forward, represented by green finance and sustainable investing. The financial sector is more significant in promoting and facilitating positive change as long as people, organizations, and governments prioritize sustainability. By coordinating financial goals with social and environmental objectives, we can provide the foundation for a more sustainable and environmentally friendly future for future generations.

The Magnus Effect: Transforming Sports and Aviation with a Revolutionary Spin

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The Magnus Effect

A great day for Computational Fluid dynamicsists, of which one area of my research expertise is in (the other being magnetostatics). Heinrich Gustav Magnus helped to explain an effect that now bears his name and allows the world to appreciate sport; what do I mean by that, you may ask? Well, Magnus helped to explain why when a forward-moving object (which is also spinning on an axis through it) giving rise to different pressures on either side of the object (typically a spherical ball) arcs or bends or swerves.

I am sure that Rafael Nadal (1986-) or Roger Federer (1981-) or Christiano Ronaldo (1985-) are unfamiliar with this law yet they use it to their advantage with a great deal of precision. A pressure difference can also be very useful, for example when such a difference exists on the top and bottom cambers of an airplane wing which is quite fortuitous as it keeps the plane aloft.

From Pressure Law to Water Molecule Discovery

Now Magnus studied with Jons Jakob Berzulius (1779-1848) and then with Joseph Louis Gay-Lussac (1778-1850) who is often credited for arriving at what is often called the pressure law for an ideal gas and which follows from the ideal gas equation PV=nRT (where symbols have their usual meaning). The law itself can be derived when V (and consequently the mass of gas) are held constant. In passing the name Gay-Lussac is one of the 72 great French Mathematicians, Engineers and Scientists who are on the Eiffel Tower, which I had the pleasure of viewing in 2008 when I went to watch the French Open final between Nadal and Federer (wow, this post really has a tennis undertone).

I do have one qualm about these names, however, which is the inclusion of J. Lagrange (1736-1813), who I have discussed on many occasions, not that I doubt his right to inclusion, only that he was, in fact, Italian (but he was later naturalized as French). Gay-Lussac was also responsible for realising that water consists of a molecule containing two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom, no mean feat making him a Chemical “Giant” to be revered.

Unsung Hero of Fluid Dynamics

Magnus went on to set up the best-equipped laboratory in Germany in the 1840s and, due to his exceptional teaching prowess, was able to attract great scholars to join him; one who springs to mind is Herman Helmholtz (1821-1894), whose equation I was led to during a separation of variables solution in my PhD thesis after first arriving at the Euler (1707-1783)-Poisson (1781-1840) -Darboux (1842-1917) equation. Poisson, by the way, is one of the 72 heralded on the Eiffel Tower, but amazingly, Darboux is not.

Magnus is perhaps not so well known as some of the other “Giants” that I have discussed, but being a fluid dynamicist, I had to pay homage to my “old friend”.

The Effect of AI on the Finance Function

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The corporate finance industry is no exception to how artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a disruptive force in different industries. Consequently, major changes have occurred because of the integration of AI technologies in finance. These have improved decision-making abilities, streamlined procedures, and altered the conventional playbook, if not ripped up. This article examines how AI affects the corporate finance sector and considers the possibility that this sector will become entirely automated soon. As the enthusiasts may say we may have an apocalyptic ‘human-less society’.

Applications of AI

Potential Benefits of AI

Efficiency and Automation: Automating repetitive and rule-based processes is one of the direct effects of AI in corporate finance. AI-powered algorithms can analyse large datasets at previously unheard-of speeds. It enables quicker and more accurate risk assessments, compliance checks, and financial transactions. Thanks to this efficiency improvement, finance experts can now concentrate on more intricate and strategic facets of their jobs.

Predictive modelling and data analysis: AI is excellent at data analysis, helping banks garner insightful information from enormous datasets. Machine learning algorithms can spot correlations, trends, and patterns that human analysts might miss. This skill is especially important for predicting market trends, managing investment portfolios, and arriving at well-informed strategic judgements.

Risk Management: By offering real-time monitoring and analysis, AI improves risk management in corporate finance. Algorithms that use machine learning can evaluate the state of the market, spot irregularities, and forecast possible threats. By taking a proactive stance, financial institutions can reduce risks more successfully, averting or better managing crises and enhancing stability.

Better Understanding of Customers and Operations

Customer Experience and Personalisation: AI-powered innovations transform consumers’ engagement with financial services. AI-powered chatbots, virtual assistants, and personalised recommendation systems improve consumer pleasure and engagement. With customised financial advice and solutions, these tools offer a more responsive and seamless experience.

Fraud Detection and Security: Cybercriminals are a persistent menace to corporate finance. AI is crucial in strengthening cyber security. It can identify questionable activity, detect fraud, and implement strong authentication procedures. This promotes trust in the digital financial ecosystem while safeguarding financial institutions and their clients.

Cost Reduction and Scalability: AI also enables cost reduction by automating repetitive operations and reducing the demand and cost of human labour. Furthermore, AI systems make financial processes scalable to meet sudden increases in demand without having idle capacity. This scalability makes financial institutions more competitive in a changing market.

Prof. Andrew NG, AI can change everything.

Limitations of AI

Challenges and Ethical Issues: Although AI has many advantages for corporate finance, there are also challenges and ethical issues that urgently need to be addressed. For example, lack of transparency, impact on the labour market, and algorithm biases are a few main challenges. AI may lead to the emergence of the ‘’Useless’’ class. Israeli thinker Harari argues if people choose not to upskill themselves, they may remain jobless their entire lives. Sustainable growth requires finding a balance between ethical responsibility and technological innovation.

Human-AI Collaboration: A more plausible and safer future entails the cooperative integration of humans and AI instead of a ‘human-less’ future. Finance professionals and AI technologies can work together symbiotically to maximise the benefits of each. AI’s analytical prowess and efficiency are enhanced by human intuition, creativity, and moral judgement, resulting in a potent or killer combination.

Skill Development and Training: As AI advances, finance professionals will increasingly need to pick up new skills. The sector must fund continuous training initiatives to motivate and motivate its employees. This proactive strategy guarantees that, in a changing environment, the workforce is relevant and adaptive.

Regulatory Considerations: Conversely, robust regulatory frameworks are necessary to incorporate AI in corporate finance. Regulation addressing ethical issues, data protection, and the proper application of AI in financial decision-making must be created by authorities and put into practice. Innovation and regulatory monitoring must coexist harmoniously to keep people confident in the financial system.

Will AI change Finance Function Forever?

Artificial intelligence (AI) significantly impacts corporate finance and Finance functions, changing how financial institutions function, make choices, and communicate with their clients. Although automation and efficiency drive a paradigm shift in the business, it appears improbable—and possibly even undesirable—that there would be a ‘human-less future’. Corporate finance’s future is in the cooperative synergy between AI and humans, where each brings special skills to the fore that enable a more innovative, ethical, and resilient (global) financial ecosystem. The industry needs to embrace a future in which AI and human intellect coexist peacefully, invest heavily in workforce development, and give ethical issues foremost priority as it navigates this disruptive path.

In my next article, I delve deeper into the ethical challenges that AI poses and the necessary regulatory mechanisms that will facilitate a smoother and more equitable transition. 

Robert von Mayer: Conservation of Energy in Thermodynamics

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Introduction:

Mayer was the first person to state the law of energy conservation, one of the most fundamental tenets of modern-day physics. Mayer proposed energy conservation in a paper sent to Poggendorff’s Annalen der Physik. Due to insufficient training in Mathematics and Physics, the paper regrettably contained an error.

German physician and physicist Julius Robert von Mayer (1814–1878) made important advances in thermodynamics and energy conservation. Mayer, born in Heilbronn, Germany, on November 25, 1814, contributed to developing our current knowledge of energy conservation, a concept essential to many scientific fields. This article examines Mayer’s life, his scientific accomplishments, and the enduring effects of his research.

Annalen der Physik:

Albert Einstein and Mayer published his groundbreaking papers in 1905 in Annalen der Physik. These papers were respectively on: 

  • The photoelectric effect introduced the photon and Planck’s law, for which he won the Nobel Prize. 

Brownian Motion: 

I have a book penned by Albert Einstein in my home library on Brownian Motion. It’s valued at

over £1000 and was gifted by my PhD advisor’s late wife. He passed away, and I took home his entire book collection, which I still have. I told his wife about the book’s significance, but she didn’t understand it, so I took it home. The book is safely stored in the Physics section of my library. Mayer’s groundbreaking work laid the foundation for our understanding of the fundamental principles governing energy in various forms.

The Conservation of Energy:

Mayer’s conservation of energy principle development is one of his most significant scientific accomplishments. In 1842, he published a groundbreaking paper titled “Remarks on the Forces of Inorganic Nature,” introducing the energy conservation concept. The first law of thermodynamics, which states that the total energy in an isolated system remains constant, was derived from this idea.

Mayer’s groundbreaking discovery regarding energy conservation foreshadowed comparable research by Hermann von Helmholtz and James Joule. Mayer’s medical background played a role in his early work being partly recognized.

Theory of Relativity:

Albert’s third paper advanced the work of Galileo Galilei and Isaac Newton, while his fourth introduced the mass-energy relationshi

p. Any one of those papers would have made him a Physics “Superstar” overnight, but to have four such papers is beyond amazing. Despite not completing his doctoral studies, he wrote these papers under Mr. Mayer, a patent clerk third class. 

Conclusion:

In conclusion, Mayer’s groundbreaking work laid the foundation for our understanding of the fundamental principles governing energy in various forms. In my research, I use this equation depicted with the ideal gas constant, R, frequently when considering compressible flow. He revolutionized his time’s scientific paradigms by discovering energy conservation and its transformation into different forms. Mayer’s work on the mechanical equivalent of heat advanced our understanding of energy’s interplay.

The Impact of Global Supply Chain: Disruptions on the Economy

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Introduction:

In a globalized world where products and services flow over national boundaries easily, interruptions to the complex network of supply chains can significantly impact the international economy. The stability of global supply chains has been permanently affected by the challenges of the past few years, including the COVID-19 epidemic, geopolitical tensions, natural calamities, and technology setbacks. This article delves into the complex dynamics that influence how different countries produce, distribute, and consume to examine the multiple effects of these shocks on the economy.

1. GDP Contraction and Economic Slowdown:

Economic growth and disruptions to the global supply chain are positively associated. A reduction in overall economic output stems from a slowdown in production and distribution channels, which causes GDP contractions in the impacted countries. There is a noticeable cascading effect when economic activity declines since it affects consumer spending, investment confidence, and employment rates.

2. The Inflationary Forces:

Inflationary pressures frequently result from supply chain disruptions because they raise production costs and cause a shortage of goods. Businesses often pass on increasing costs to customers through higher pricing due to their struggles with rising raw materials and transportation costs. Spikes in inflation can reduce purchasing power and impede consumer spending, worsening already dire economic conditions.

3. Adaptation and Resilience in Business:

Businesses that handle supply chain interruptions show how important it is to be resilient and adaptable when faced with challenges. Companies that make investments in digital technologies, diverse supply chain networks, and risk management techniques are better equipped to weather challenging times. Reversibility and innovation become essential for maintaining operations and minimizing financial consequences.

4. Interdependence and Global Interconnectedness:

The intricacy of contemporary supply networks emphasizes the interconnectedness of countries in the global economy. A disturbance in a single region of the globe might cause ripple effects over the whole system. This interconnectedness highlights the need for international cooperation and risk-sharing mechanisms to enhance the resilience of global supply networks.

5. Strategic Shifts in Trade Policies:

Disruptions to supply chains have forced countries to reconsider their dependence on particular areas for necessities. As a result, trade policies have been reevaluated, with some nations aiming to increase domestic production capacity and diversify their suppliers. For many countries, the importance of self-sufficiency in vital industries has taken centre stage.

6. Digitalization and Technological Innovation:

We’ve seen accelerating technical innovation and digitalization in reaction to disruptions. Adopting technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things (IoT) is improving visibility, facilitating the creation of more responsive and flexible systems, and streamlining supply chain operations.

Conclusion:

Disruptions to the global supply chain significantly affect the economy and all facets of contemporary life. Strong and flexible supply networks are more important than ever as the world gets more interconnected. Governments, corporations, and international organizations must work together to create robust systems that can handle unforeseen difficulties and guarantee the continuous movement of products and services worldwide. The knowledge gained from recent upheavals offers a path forward for building a more robust, flexible, and sustainable world economy.

Fintech: Mixing Finance with Technology

Banks are important in any modern economic system. As a structuralists one may regard banks as a central organ of our society such as heart valves that pumps clean blood into our arteries. Their omnipotence also stems from their ability to collect and store customers’ financial data. Banks can also leverage this data to become verifiers of our identities such proof of address, proof of income, proof of cash balance, and proof of identity. Therefore, computing becomes central to modern banking and tech companies and innovators now fancy that lets just take over the entire banking function in the name of “Fintech”. One wonders that can BigTech and tech innovators actually replace or make banks disappear (just like coal mines or steel mills in the UK). Let’s look the challenge of Fintech.

Fintech or Techfin

The first challenge is to define fintech, the clue is in the name. Firms that were traditionally engaged in deposit taking, payments, lending, insurance, or brokerage businesses and now they use technology to perform similar operation may be labelled as Fintech []. Firms that are traditionally in the IT business such as Apple, Google, Samsung, Amazon, or other BigTech when they try to provide traditional services using their technologies to their customers ma be defined as “TechFin”. This dichotomy is confused that everything even a website offering advice on buying bitcoin now have started to call itself a FinTech. It’s the latter that is challenging the former in some aspects of their operations not the other way around. Because the entities being challenged are so big and mesmerising in their functions, it’s fashionable to allude every startup as a FinTech.

Whereas some startups are nothing more than an advisory website offering purchase suggestions or make investors opinion. Other startups are mere tech native firms who try to leverage their IT capabilities and provide one or two financial services such as Klarna (buy now pay later).

Fintech and techfin

Fintech an emergent challenge to banks

Alchemy of Banks: We need to understand their “Raw Material”, “Inventory”, and “merchandise”, which banks use to create or manufacture their products and services. Banks use money that they create using customers “Depositors” and “lend or invest” to other people, firms, and governments. In another thread, I’ll explain that banks can neither take deposits nor make loan or investments, it’s against the law. Therefore, banks’ products are of four types:

1. Conventional Banking:

These are the activities that involve usage of banks’ balance sheet (money) such as underwriting, insurance, and portfolio management. These products rely on a bank’s balance sheet as banks would have to honour their commitment and pay if a counter party to any agreement defaults. Imagine, you take a long-forward position in a currency swap agreement and bank arranges the swap between you another counter party. When the times comes, and the counter party now struggles to provide you the currency, in this case, the bank takes the responsibility and settles the exchange.

Similarly, if you’re a company and has just announced an IPO of 1 million units @ $50 each stock and bank has agreed to underwrite it if the full stock is not sold and the price falls below $30. On day of launch, if the market price is $30 but only half million-stock sell, then the bank will buy the remaining stock at $30 from you. These types of activities require deep balance sheets and ability to absorb large losses.

2. Platform Banking:

These are the activities that involve usage of banks resources and expertise such as advisory, transfer of money, conversion of currency, and price comparison. These services are mere advisory services and require nothing but an escrow account to settle payments and in some cases, they need not have an escrow account even. Firms such as marketer, INSHUR, Experian, Credit Karma, Wise, and Revolut has escrow account at large banks and they provide services as money exchange, currency conversion, money transfer, trading, or even insurance offers. But they don’t hold your deposit or lend you any money, they are just intermediary. Other services providers such as Credit Karma use data provided by banks to market financial and insurance products. They do not offer anything but information and platform.

3. Infrastructure Baking:

These are the activities where banks leverage their physical, IT and non-physical infrastructure to serve the needs of society such as merchant payments, online payments, secure set-up of direct debits or even an escrow account to hold money. BigTech firms are fiercely fighting in this arena, PayPal, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Amazon, Mastercard, and Visa are all in this business. In fact, banks also use master card and visa to offer their payment services; however, still the front is their name rather than actual technology providers.

4. Warehousing and clearing banking:

These are the activities that may be called “High Finance”. These sits at the top of the financial system and world economy and they provide the ability to settle all transaction in the domestic and global financial system. SWIFT technology and Bank of International Settlement are the pivots around which this works. Although, bitcoin and other crypto tried to become a threat; nevertheless, the fortress is too strong to break in.

5. Data Banking:

These activities are the now a hotly contested area in our modern society where the financial world is fighting hard to capture as much data as possible about customers. Their shopping attitude, their consumption behaviour, their saving behaviour, and their travel, leisure and pleasure behaviour. These data points are then used by banks and other fintech (which access them through open banking) to tailor products and services for their customers.

Conclusion

The above discussion establishes that FinTech or TechFin either complement existing banks or competes in some special aspects of banking activities. The real question is that making claims such as Banks can be replaced or eliminated altogether is a far cry. What may happen that these FinTech or TechFin eventually either become banks or may either be taken over by banks. We do not know, but in the next article I will explain that why banks are difficult to replace.

References:

  1. Hill, J. (2018). Fintech and the remaking of financial institutions. Academic Press.
  2. Nicoletti, B., Nicoletti, W., & Weis, A. (2017). Future of FinTech.
  3. Rubini, A. (2018). Fintech in a flash: financial technology made easy. Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG.
  4. Chishti, S., & Barberis, J. (2016). The Fintech book: The financial technology handbook for investors, entrepreneurs and visionaries. John Wiley & Sons.
  5. VanderLinden, S. L., Millie, S. M., Anderson, N., & Chishti, S. (2018). The insurtech book: The insurance technology handbook for investors, entrepreneurs and fintech visionaries. John Wiley & Sons.
  6. Boot, A., Hoffmann, P., Laeven, L., & Ratnovski, L. (2021). Fintech: what’s old, what’s new?. Journal of financial stability53, 100836.
  7. Boot, A., Hoffmann, P., Laeven, L., & Ratnovski, L. (2020). What is Really New in Fintech. IMF Blog, December17, 2020.
  8. Timonen, K. (2022). The impact of fintech on the banking industry.
  9. Campanella, F., Serino, L., Battisti, E., Giakoumelou, A., & Karasamani, I. (2023). FinTech in the financial system: Towards a capital-intensive and high competence human capital reality?. Journal of Business Research155, 113376.
  10. Molnár, J. (2018). What does financial intermediation theory tell us about fintechs?. Vezetéstudomány-Budapest Management Review49(5), 38-46.
  11. Omarini, A. (2017). The digital transformation in banking and the role of FinTechs in the new financial intermediation scenario.

Understanding CPI: How it tracks the inflation and its Analysis

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Introduction:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is an important economic metric that shows how prices for goods and services have changed over time. The definition, causes, impacts on the economy, and possible management and mitigating techniques of CPI inflation are all covered in this article.

CPI Inflation Definition:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a metric that looks at the weighted average of costs for various consumer products and services, including food, medical care, and transportation. The CPI measures inflation as the pace at which these goods and services prices rise over time. A higher CPI indicates that a country’s currency has less buying power.

Calculation of CPI:

There are multiple procedures involved in calculating the CPI. First, the collection of prices of the items in the basket is for a base year of choice. The price changes as a percentage and is then possible for computation by adding up all the prices of the same goods for each following period. We can calculate CPI by using the formula below:

CPI= (Cost of Basket in Current Year/ Cost of Basket in Base Year)*100

Causes of CPI Inflation:

Demand-Pull Inflation:

When the demand for products and services outpaces their availability, inflation, known as “demand-pull”, arises. It is usually associated with times of economic expansion, increased consumer spending, and low unemployment rates. Prices typically increase when demand exceeds supply.

Cost-Push Inflation:

Cost-push inflation is a phenomenon that growing production expenses, such as salary increases or rising raw material prices, can bring on. Businesses may raise the prices of goods and services to pass on increasing expenditures to customers.

Built-In Inflation:

Built-in inflation, sometimes called wage-price inflation, is when employees demand more pay, and companies respond by raising prices to preserve their profit margins. It leads to a cycle of growing wages and prices.

Significance of CPI Inflation:

For several reasons, CPI inflation is an important economic indicator:

Cost of Living: 

The CPI is a crucial instrument for evaluating shifts in the cost of living. It aids in the understanding of how much more or less income is needed to maintain a steady standard of life by people, corporations, and policymakers.

Wage Adjustments: 

Many government perks and labour contracts depend on variations in the CPI. Wages and benefits may be changed in response to rising inflation to help people afford the higher cost of living.

Monetary Policy: 

Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the US, use CPI inflation as a reference to determine monetary policy. One of the main objectives for preserving economic stability is frequently to control inflation.

Investment Decisions: 

CPI data are helpful for businesses and investors to make well-informed choices regarding pricing policies, resource allocation, and investments.

Impacts of CPI Inflation:

Erosion of Purchasing Power: 

Consumers’ purchasing power declines as prices rise. It implies that people’s level of life may decline due to needing more money to purchase the same products and services.

Businesses May Experience Uncertainty: 

Due to inflation, businesses may need help to plan. Quick price spikes can affect long-term planning and investment decisions by interfering with forecasting and budgeting.

Interest Rate Adjustments:

Interest rate adjustments are a common tactic central banks use to rein down inflation. Central banks may increase interest rates to calm economic activity and lessen inflationary pressures during high CPI inflation. Higher interest rates, though, can impede economic expansion.

Effects of CPI Inflation:

Effect on Consumers: 

As the CPI rises, consumers’ ability to afford goods and services is impacted because money loses purchasing power.

Investments: 

A high inflation rate lowers the real return on investments so it might affect investment returns.

Interest Rates: 

In reaction to changes in the CPI, central banks may modify interest rates, which can impact borrowing costs and investment choices.

Challenges and Criticisms:

Substitution Bias: 

According to critics, the CPI does not accurately reflect shifts in consumer behaviour, such as switching products and services in reaction to price adjustments.

Quality Shifts: 

An overestimation of inflation may result from the CPI’s failure to represent advances in product quality accurately.

Regional Variations: 

There could be differences in the cost of living because the CPI may not fairly reflect inflation for all demographic groups or geographical areas.

Strategies to Manage CPI Inflation:

Monetary Policy: 

Central banks, like the US Federal Reserve, use monetary policy instruments to manage inflation. Common tactics to affect inflation rates include changing reserve requirements, open market operations, and interest rate adjustments.

Fiscal Policy: 

Taxation and public spending are two examples of fiscal tools that governments can employ to control inflation. Higher government expenditure can boost the economy in times of low inflation, while austerity measures help to reduce inflation.

Supply-Side Policies: 

Increasing the availability of products and services is one way to reduce inflationary pressures. It includes actions to raise infrastructure, simplify rules, and increase production.

Conclusion:

A key economic indicator, CPI inflation, sheds light on how prices are increasing and how they affect both consumers and the economy as a whole. People, businesses, and policymakers closely monitor CPI statistics to make well-informed decisions about financial planning, investments, and economic policies. It is crucial to comprehend CPI inflation to promote economic stability and guarantee that everyone can afford a reasonable standard of living.